Cubs' Zambrano takes mound against Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

07/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Zambrano takes aim at his first win in five starts this afternoon when the Chicago Cubs continue their four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field.

Zambrano was roughed up by the Chicago White Sox in his last start on Sunday, as he allowed five runs (four earned) and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings to fall to 4-3 on the season, while raising his earned run average to 3.69.

The 28-year-old right-hander did not get a decision against the Brewers earlier in the season, but the Cubs have lost his last six home starts against them.

Chicago's offense awakened in a big way in Thursday's opener, as Derrek Lee headlined a home run parade with two long-balls -- a three-run shot and a grand slam -- for a career-high seven RBI, leading the Cubs to a 9-5 win.

It was Lee's 20th career multi-homer game, as the Cubs won for the third time in four games. Jake Fox and Geovany Soto each hit a solo shot in a game that featured six total homers -- all in the first six innings.

"I don't feel different, just swinging the bat well right now," Lee said of his recent string of good hitting. "Getting a pitch to hit and putting the bat on it -- I don't try to compare different times."

Ryan Dempster (5-5) was the beneficiary of the run support, moving to 10-3 lifetime against Milwaukee after allowing three runs on eight hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings.

Mike Cameron and Prince Fielder each hit a home run for the Brewers, who have lost two in a row after winning four of their previous five. Seth McClung (3-2), in his second start of the year, was hammered for seven runs on seven hits with two walks and a strikeout in only 3 1/3 innings.

"The offense, after getting shut out yesterday, I was pleased with the offense," Brewers manager Ken Macha said. "The offense would have given us a chance to win. The starting pitching didn't."

Getting the call for the Brewers today will be veteran right-hander Jeff Suppan, who has lost his last two starts. Suppan absorbed the loss on Sunday against the San Francisco Giants, who hit him for five runs and nine hits in 5 2/3 innings, dropping him to 5-6 on the year to go along with a 4.86 ERA.

Suppan lost to the Cubs back on April 12 and is 6-8 lifetime against them with a 3.90 ERA in 21 starts.

The 34-year-old Suppan may also have to deal with Alfonso Soriano, who has sat out the last two Cubs' games due to his recent struggles at the plate. Soriano has just 13 hits in his last 64 at-bats and has seen his season average dip to .230.

Milwaukee has lost four of its seven meetings with the Cubs this season, but won in five of its nine visits to Wrigley a year ago.

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Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

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Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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