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09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers can pull back to .500 in the midst of a lengthy second-half slump tonight, when they visit Kauffman Stadium for the second of three weekend games with the host Kansas City Royals.
The Tigers won Friday's opener, 9-5, when Will Rhymes' two-run triple in the top of 11th highlighted the four-run inning.
Ryan Raburn added his ninth homer in 21 games and drove in two runs for the Tigers, who have recently won three of five. Raburn has been on a tear during the 21-game stretch, batting nearly .350 over his torrid streak.
Brandon Inge had two hits and two RBI, while Don Kelly had three hits in the win. Ryan Perry (3-5) earned the victory with two scoreless innings of relief after Jeremy Bonderman allowed four runs, seven hits and five walks in a 7 1/3-inning start.
The Tigers were in contention in the American League's Central Division at the All-Star break, but went on to lose 13 of 17 games over the remainder of July before going 13-16 in August.
They enter Saturday sitting third in the division, 11 games behind first-place Minnesota.
Alex Gordon homered, while Yuniesky Betancourt drove in two runs for the Royals, who have lost five of seven. Starting pitcher Zack Greinke had a no- hitter through 4 1/3 frames before faltering, giving up four runs, six hits and two walks while fanning only three in 6 1/3 frames.
On the mound for Detroit tonight will be young right-hander Rick Porcello, who tries to duplicate a gem against Kansas City two starts ago. In that Aug. 24 outing at Comerica Park, the 21-year-old allowed just two hits and struck out four in seven scoreless innings of the Tigers' 9-1 victory.
He allowed 10 hits and three runs in a previous 2010 start against the Royals, back on April 14, and picked up a no-decision in a 7-3 Detroit loss.
Porcello earned just his second road win of the season in his last outing, scattering three hits in seven innings while allowing one run and striking out four in a 10-4 triumph at Toronto on Sunday.
For Kansas City, journeyman southpaw Bruce Chen can reach double-digit wins for the second time in a career that's seen him pitch for 10 teams when he toes the rubber tonight.
The 33-year-old Panamanian debuted in the big leagues with the Atlanta Braves in 1998 and pitched for Philadelphia, the New York Mets, Montreal, Cincinnati, Boston and Houston before finally breaking through for 13 wins with the Baltimore Orioles in 2005.
He was winless in 40 appearances with Baltimore a year later, however, and has subsequently pitched for Texas and the Royals while going 10-13 with a save in 49 appearances.
Chen has made 17 starts in 27 outings with Kansas City in 2010 and picked up win No. 9 Sunday at Cleveland with six innings of six-hit, two-run ball in a 6-2 triumph.
He allowed five hits and five runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 12-3 loss to the Tigers in Detroit on Aug. 23 and is 1-3 in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Tigers.
The Tigers have won seven of 13 meetings with the Royals so far this season.
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay goes after win No. 17 this evening, when the
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays own the best road record of any team in
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over the hom
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Johnson hopes for a better result than the last time
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<< Rockies try to pin ninth straight loss on reeling Padres
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres try to avoid a ninth straight loss
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Dodgers hoping to further cripple Giants' playoff hopes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Cain tries to make it two straight wins against the
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The Seattle Mariners will attempt to build off an
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Jimenez keeps three-shot lead in Switzerland >>
Crans Montana, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Miguel Angel Jimenez protected
his three-shot lead at the European Masters Saturday with a three-under 68 in
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Jimenez appeared to have shot a 67 after rolling in a long birdie
Eagles acquire DE Barnes from Ravens >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Eagles acquired defensive
end Antwan Barnes from Baltimore in exchange for an undisclosed draft pick.
Barnes has spent his entire three-year career with the Ravens, appearing in 38
games.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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